JARVIS INTELLIGENCE · MARKET DESK
Opening your private paper workspace.
Live quotes are never preloaded. Scan when you’re ready to review an exact contract.
VIGILANCEDV MACHINEWORKS · JARVIS INTELLIGENCE
Vigilance reads supported crypto, equity, and commodity event contracts: exact Kalshi terms, adaptive multi-timeframe estimates, venue odds kept separate, and paper risk you can inspect before a decision.
2 visual references · not performance evidence
VIGIL ● SENTINEL ONLINE
READ-ONLY + PAPER MODEVigilance does not place orders. Confirm every market’s full rules and settlement source on Kalshi before acting.
NO LIVE EXECUTIONCompare live Kalshi quotes with JGMI’s chart-based YES / NO guidance. See recent 5- and 10-minute moves, multi-timeframe readings, and why each estimate leans or waits.
Model estimates are uncalibrated research, not a proven edge. Underlying proxy prices may differ from the contract's settlement index. WAIT is normal when terms or bars do not support a read.
Scan a recent sample of open markets for Jarvis-mapped crypto, equities, and supported commodity futures, or load a supported contract by its exact market ticker.
Load a supported crypto, equity, and commodity contract. Vigilance verifies its terms, quote, underlying data and multi-timeframe evidence.
Scan the market list or paste a ticker to load a specific contract.
Prices come from the current Kalshi order book. A price is what one contract costs; it is not a Jarvis forecast. “Up” and “Down” are never assumed to mean YES or NO — read each side’s venue wording.
Uncalibrated research estimate · not a proven win chance, recommendation or trading instruction.
Jarvis maps the contract’s exact above, below, range or anchored up/down condition, measures range efficiency and volatility regime, then combines normalized 1m, 5m, 1h and 1d momentum with weights that adapt to asset class and settlement horizon. Exact market wording is preserved for review at paper-ticket entry. A sensitivity envelope shows how the estimate changes under wider and narrower volatility assumptions. This model has not passed held-out calibration and is not evidence of a predictive edge.
Underlying candles come from a public Yahoo Finance proxy; the contract’s named settlement index may differ. Venue midpoint, spread and depth are displayed separately and do not change the model probability. The estimate never selects a side, fills your manual estimate, sizes a position or places an order.
No contract selected
WAIT · No observed book snapshots
PRICE PER CONTRACT ($)
No observations · device-local time
Observed book snapshots only · this session · price, not probability or forecast. Missing asks remain missing.
| Observed time | YES ask ($) | NO ask ($) |
|---|
No rules loaded.
No additional rules loaded.
Set a maximum budget, then see how many whole contracts it can buy at the selected price. Enter your own probability and fee estimate; verify the exact market fee before any real trade.
$80,344.56 target · 61% displayed chance
Paper positions stay in this browser. Record the contract, your estimate and the result, then review how well your probabilities were calibrated.
Performance stays honestWin rate is only one view. Your Brier score uses your entered estimate; Jarvis MTF Brier uses the saved research probability at entry. Both require manually confirmed outcomes and show sample size. No result is inferred from a market price.
A prediction-market research surface built on Jarvis Market Geometry Intelligence. The role is to explain the contract, multi-timeframe context and paper risk, then preserve the evidence behind each review.
A watchful, geometric night owl with an amber market crest and Jarvis cyan eyes. Vigil represents source verification, timing and disciplined inaction; it never celebrates a win before settlement.
OBSERVE · VERIFY · WAIT FOR PROOFVigilance is a focused family member that consumes shared Jarvis contracts: normalized market identity, market geometry, evidence freshness, policy gates, decision ledger and outcome memory. It does not fork the trading core.
Read-only estimates for supported crypto, equity, and commodity above/below, range and anchored up/down contracts using 1m, 5m, 1h and 1d bars.
Capture frozen proxy inputs and official outcomes, then review calibration by asset, settlement horizon and market regime.
Keep realized volatility, timeframe alignment, market hours, quote freshness, spread and book depth visible as separate evidence lanes.
Research estimates stay uncalibrated and never authorize an order. Execution remains a separate authorization decision.
Operator-shared Kalshi position-card screenshots, recorded exactly as displayed. These records are SCREENSHOT_ONLY and not calibration-eligible. They are never added to paper positions, calibration, Brier score, win rate or strategy performance, and they change no forecast, probability, sizing or execution authority.
Promotion gate: a record becomes calibration-eligible only with exact contract identity, frozen pre-outcome time-aligned inputs, verified lifecycle and official result, a predeclared evaluator, and held-out review.
Set a per-position budget cap, a combined open-risk cap and how long Vigilance may use its last successful market-data fetch.
These limits apply to paper logging and review status only. They cannot place or modify a trade.